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80% is a safe estimate. Adjust higher if you want to be more aggressive or lower if you want to be more conservative.
Advanced users: If you know the RTP, you can subtract the jackpot contribution percent from the RTP to determine the base game return. I recommend subtracting at least a few additional percentage points to give you an actual edge and to account for variance. See the notes below for more details.
Notes
The jackpot contribution to RTP is calculated by determining the average hit point of the jackpot and then dividing that by the total amount of coin-in required to reach the average hit point. When calculating this, be sure to have the midpoint box checked if the jackpot can hit anywhere. You can subtract the jackpot contribution from the RTP to determine the base game return. If there are multiple jackpots, then it is a good idea to calculate this for all the jackpots that you aren’t likely to hit during your chase and subtract all of those from the RTP. For example, say you are chasing a MHB $500 jackpot that contributes 1% to the overall return of the machine. There is also a MHB $10,000 jackpot (that you aren’t likely to hit) that contributes 3% to the overall return. If you know the RTP of the machine you are playing is 93%, then you would subtract the 3% and the 1% to determine the base game return is 89%. If you don’t know the RTP of the machine you are playing (or if none of this makes sense), then you should ignore all of the above and just use 80% as the base game return.
The “bankroll on hand to be safe” assumes the jackpot goes all the way to the top and you suffer an absolutely brutal 85% bleed rate the entire time. The more spins you get in, the closer you get to the machine’s actual return, which will allow you to get by with a smaller bankroll. Therefore, I recommend playing at the lowest bet level that fits within your time constraints, as this will greatly lower your variance compared to playing at max bet. The higher the bet level you play, the more “gambling” you are doing. And as a machine pro, your aim is to do as little gambling as possible. Betting the minimum will smooth out the ups and downs. Also, at max bet you will have the potential to get handpays, which can require a lot of waiting around for slot attendants. It’s much better to get lots of smaller wins (and no W-2Gs) at min bet.